Abstract P094

Evidence of Statistical Cure for Hodgkin Lymphoma With Contemporary Treatment: A Non-mixture Cure Model Analysis

Background: Whether patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) achieve statistical cure in the modern treatment era remains incompletely characterized. The current study was aimed to estimate overall and subgroup-specific cure fractions, determine cure time, and validate 5-year overall survival (OS) as a surrogate for cure fraction in a large multicenter cohort.

Methods: A total of 1,164 HL patients treated between 1996 and 2020 were enrolled. Relative survival was estimated using the Ederer II method with reference to Chinese national life tables. Statistical cure was assessed using a non-mixture cure model; cure fractions were estimated across 13 predefined clinical subgroups. Linear regression evaluated associations between landmark OS rates and cure fractions.

Results: Over a median follow-up of 7.2 years, 166 patients (14.3%) died. The estimated overall cure fraction was 91.5% (95% CI, 89.5%–93.5%), with a cure time of approximately 4 to 5 years. Cure fractions varied substantially across subgroups: age ≥60 years (78.7% vs. 93.0%; Δ= 14.3 pp), advanced-stage disease (86.5% vs. 96.1%; Δ= 9.6 pp), ECOG performance status ≥2 (83.6% vs. 93.1%; Δ= 9.5 pp), and B symptoms (86.8% vs. 95.8%; Δ= 9.0 pp). In multivariate analysis, advanced-stage disease (adjusted OR = 0.372; P =0.013) and older age (per 10-year increment; adjusted OR = 0.454; P<0.001) were the independent determinants of reduced cure probability. The 5-year OS rate demonstrated the strongest correlation with subgroup-specific cure fractions (R2 = 0.92; P <0.001).

Conclusions: This study provides the first comprehensive population-level evidence of statistical cure in patients with HL, establishing a cure fraction of 91.5% and a cure time of 4 to 5 years. The 5-year OS constitutes a valid surrogate for cure fraction, with direct implications for clinical trial design and individualized survivorship care planning.

Keywords: Hodgkin lymphoma; Statistical cure; Cure model; Relative survival; Conditional survival; Cure fraction